TD Economics – Economic Outlook, And Now, the Hard Part

The CHPTA was pleased to have TD Bank Economist Rishi Sondhi on hand on November 2nd to give an economic outlook during a speaker event put on by the Association at the Clubhouse Event Space within the Royal Woodbine Golf Club in Etobicoke.

Rishi discussed the outlook for China before talking about the U.S. economy which has been slowing after strong growth over the past year.  Areas reviewed including outlooks for GDP, consumer spending, interest rates, the labour market, residential & non-residential investment as well as highlighting political concerns such as the impact of a potential U.S. Government shut-down.

The presentation then turned to the outlook for Canada which is in line for muted, flat growth over the next number of quarters but the country is not expected to experience any deep recession.  Similar to the U.S., high interest rates are impacting consumer spending and the housing market which he expects to be in for a bumpy ride still.  TD expects interest rates to start declining next year in Q2 and for the Canadian dollar to potentially decline a bit to the .70 level in the short term but to generally remain in the range it is now.  This will help Canadian manufacturers.  The jobs market is also expected to slow including overall wage growth while consumer prices (inflation) should continue to decline.  Household savings and strong population growth are positive buffers for the Canadian economy.  Rishi also discussed some of the risk factors for the domestic economy.

Rishi ended the presentation by taking a number of questions from the audience.  We would like to thank Rishi for taking the time to come out to speak to our members and the TD Bank for its many years of providing insightful economic information for our membership.  We look forward to more presentations in the future.

About the Speaker

Rishi Sondhi has been with the TD Economics team since 2017, where he is responsible for analyzing and forecasting provincial economies and housing markets and is a contributor to a variety of TD publications.

Prior to TD Bank, he worked with a real estate consulting firm where he researched and forecasted housing markets across Canada, as well as provincial and municipal economic activity. His extensive forecasting experience includes work with the Bank of Canada, the Ontario Construction Secretariat, CMHC and another major financial institution. In the latter role, he forecasted the economic performance of both the U.S. and Canadian economies.

Rishi holds an Honours B.A. degree in Economics from The University of Western Ontario.