The Canadian population growth has stalled over the first three months of the year as immigration levels have been deliberately reduced and the number of temporary residents has declined for the second consecutive quarter.
Statistics Canada estimates that during the first 3 months the overall population grew by just over 20,000 people to roughly 41.55 million. That represents the lowest quarter for growth since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, when border restrictions were in place.
From 2021 to 2024, Canada’s population grew by an average of 217,000 people per quarter, causing concerns about housing and healthcare access. The federal government implemented new migration restrictions, particularly for temporary residents, leading to a shift in the country’s growth trajectory. As of April 1, there were 61,111 fewer temporary residents, making up 7.1% of the total population. Ottawa aims to achieve a 5% temporary-resident share by 2027.
The Statscan data showed that the largest decrease in temporary residents came from those holding study permits. The Canadian government has imposed a cap on the number of international students entering the country, with the aim of issuing 300,000 fewer study visas by the end of 2026. This comes after the federal government imposed a 53,000 fewer international student visa holders in the first quarter of this year compared to the previous quarter. As of 2024, there were nearly one million international students in Canada.
On an annual basis, Canada’s population grew by 1.2 per cent − a sharp deceleration from recent peaks above 3 per cent.
International migration accounts for nearly all of Canada’s population growth, owing to low birth rates and an aging population.
“We’ve argued all along that the explosion in population growth – to nearly 1.3 million people within a year at one point – was playing a major role in many economic issues Canadian policymakers have been struggling with,“ wrote Robert Kavcic, senior economist at Bank of Montreal, in a Wednesday morning note to clients. ”New immigration targets set last fall are clearly now having an impact.”
Greater outflows of foreign workers and international students will be seen over the next two years as Ottawa tries to hit its 5-per-cent temporary-resident target, Mr. Kavcic noted.
“The impact is already being seen on the ground, perhaps most vividly in loosening rental markets,” he said.
Rents in the Greater Toronto Area declined 2.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2025, according to a recent report from real estate research company Urbanation. Toronto condo rents, in particular, have dropped dramatically, by 10 per cent in the past year.
Meanwhile, Canada admitted 104,256 permanent immigrants in the first quarter of 2025, the smallest number in four years.
Still, that figure is higher than Canada’s typical permanent-immigration numbers. Before the pandemic, the country never admitted more than 86,246 in a first quarter, according to Statscan.
Ottawa announced last year that it would lower its intake levels for permanent residents in 2025, admitting 395,000 people as opposed to its previous target of 500,000 permanent residents. It is also capping PR intakes at 380,000 in 2026, and 365,000 in 2027.
Source: Globe and Mail
