Canadian Retail Sales up 0.6% in October, Buoyed by Vehicle Purchases
Retail sales in Canada rose 0.6% to $67.6 billion in October 2024, primarily driven by vehicle sales, according to Statistics Canada. The core retail sales measure, which excludes volatile categories like gasoline stations, fuel vendors, and motor vehicle and parts dealers, saw a modest 0.2% increase. This is down from a 1.4% gain in September.
CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham believes that the modest growth outside of automotive sales and the forward outlook point to a slowdown.
In volume terms, retail sales were unchanged in October. Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers experienced a decline of 0.6% from September to October 2024, and a decrease of 0.2% year-over-year.
The automotive sector saw the largest increase, with 2.5% increases for sales at both new and used car dealers. Gasoline stations and fuel vendors saw a 0.5% decline, marking a sixth consecutive month of declines. Furniture, home furnishings, electronics, and appliances retailers saw a 2.5% increase, while food and beverage retailers saw the biggest drop.
Grantham suggests that the estimate of no growth in November could have been affected by the federal government’s announced GST holiday, but it won’t be clear until December numbers are released.
Source: Globe and Mail
Source: The Star
Source: Financial Post
Source: Statistics Canada
Canada’s Economy Grew 0.3% in October; Contraction Forecast for November
Statistics Canada reported a 0.3% growth in the Canadian economy in October 2024, driven by the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sectors. The growth was driven by services-producing industries growing 0.1% for the month, marking the fifth straight month of increases. Goods-producing industries rose 0.9% after four consecutive monthly declines. Manufacturing also saw a 0.3% increase, driven by an increase in nondurable goods manufacturing.
CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham called the October gains a larger-than-expected stride forward, but early evidence for November suggests it stumbled again. The central bank is likely to cut its key policy interest rate by a quarter-percentage point at its next meeting in January, rather than the half-percentage-point cuts it has made in its last two decisions.
Real estate and rental and leasing increased 0.5%, recording its sixth straight monthly increase and the largest since January 2024. This came as national home sales increased in the month, driven by higher activity in markets such as the Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver areas. The construction sector grew 0.4% in October, driven by non-residential building construction. Wholesale trade was up for a second consecutive month, posting 0.5% growth. Building material and supplies was one of the most significant contributors to the sector’s growth, driven by an increase in lumber, plywood, and millwork merchant wholesalers.
Canadian Chamber of Commerce senior economist Andrew DiCapua is expecting GDP growth in the fourth quarter 2024 of close to 2%. However, he remains pessimistic about the challenges ahead, including tariffs, reduced immigration targets, and increased uncertainty for businesses.
Source: Globe and Mail
Source: The Star
Source: Financial Post
Source: Statistics Canada
